Every important decision contains a prediction about the future.
Enter a market. Raise prices. Acquire a company. Hire a team. Change a process.
Behind each sits the implicit belief that if we do this, we expect that to happen.
The problem is that organizations often record the decision without making the reasoning behind it explicit.
What are we assuming?
What causal mechanism are we relying on?
What would have to be true for this to work?
Making that hypothesis visible improves the decision before it is made and makes learning possible afterwards.
Because when reality disagrees, the useful question is: what did reality prove wrong?